From Patagonia to the Caribbean Sea: What’s Next for Exploration and Production in South America
Wednesday, 10 June
Louvre IV
Panel
South America is undergoing a geographic and technical shift in its oil & gas landscape: traditional fields and proved reserves in several countries are maturing while new frontiers — from southern Argentina to the deepwater plays of the northern Caribbean margin — are emerging as potential growth drivers. Recent projections and sector analyses warn that, without material new discoveries and targeted investment, historically producing countries could flip their net position; Brazil, for example, has been projected to risk becoming a net oil importer in the 2030s if exploration activity and successful finds do not pick up.
On the northern margin, the equatorial offshore has risen to strategic prominence: Guyana has rapidly scaled up production from the Stabroek block under an ExxonMobil-led consortium and has produced hundreds of millions of barrels while bringing additional FPSOs online; Suriname is also advancing its offshore program through production sharing contracts and new project activity. Meanwhile, activity around the Amazon mouth (the Foz do Amazonas) has drawn Petrobras and regulatory attention — exploratory drilling authorizations and requests have reignited debates over environmental risk, technical feasibility, and the basin’s true potential.
Further south, the Pelotas Basin is positioning itself as a rising exploration hotspot for Brazil, influenced by successful analogues in conjugate margins such as the Namibian Orange Basin and by recent seismic reappraisals that justify exploratory well campaigns. Industry plans and seismic evidence suggest it could contribute meaningful new resources if early wells confirm the play models.
Onshore and regional dynamics are heterogeneous: Colombia’s exploration outlook is constrained by a mixture of regulatory shifts, social opposition and uneven exploration results, which affect its medium-term production outlook; Argentina’s shale revolution in Vaca Muerta remains the central story for unconventional upstream growth, with rising flows and investments in takeaway capacity even as operators and policymakers manage near-term volatility. Overall, South America’s next decade in E&P will be shaped by a mix of geological luck, fiscal and regulatory choices, capital availability, and the ability to build or adapt infrastructure.
On the northern margin, the equatorial offshore has risen to strategic prominence: Guyana has rapidly scaled up production from the Stabroek block under an ExxonMobil-led consortium and has produced hundreds of millions of barrels while bringing additional FPSOs online; Suriname is also advancing its offshore program through production sharing contracts and new project activity. Meanwhile, activity around the Amazon mouth (the Foz do Amazonas) has drawn Petrobras and regulatory attention — exploratory drilling authorizations and requests have reignited debates over environmental risk, technical feasibility, and the basin’s true potential.
Further south, the Pelotas Basin is positioning itself as a rising exploration hotspot for Brazil, influenced by successful analogues in conjugate margins such as the Namibian Orange Basin and by recent seismic reappraisals that justify exploratory well campaigns. Industry plans and seismic evidence suggest it could contribute meaningful new resources if early wells confirm the play models.
Onshore and regional dynamics are heterogeneous: Colombia’s exploration outlook is constrained by a mixture of regulatory shifts, social opposition and uneven exploration results, which affect its medium-term production outlook; Argentina’s shale revolution in Vaca Muerta remains the central story for unconventional upstream growth, with rising flows and investments in takeaway capacity even as operators and policymakers manage near-term volatility. Overall, South America’s next decade in E&P will be shaped by a mix of geological luck, fiscal and regulatory choices, capital availability, and the ability to build or adapt infrastructure.
